14 Apr 2020

Punchh + Hathway Weekly Pulse Trend Report – April 14, 2020

By: Punchh

Strategy

Punchh is partnering with Hathway to analyze the latest restaurant industry trends on a weekly basis to help our customers navigate the COVID-19 crisis and the new economic environment.

WEEKLY PULSE TREND REPORT

As a growing number of states across the US order the closure of restaurant dining rooms due to COVID-19, executives are scrambling to stem the tide of sales decline that will almost surely follow. To help these restaurant brands make informed decisions during this critical time, Hathway and Punchh have joined together to provide a weekly report analyzing the recent changes in behaviors amongst loyalty customers and predicting what will happen next. Following our initial trend report from March 21, this week’s report examines data from February 16, 2020 through April 11, 2020.

WEEKLY SALES GROWTH OUTPACES AOV FOR FIRST TIME IN 6 WEEKS

OBSERVATIONS

  • Sales normalized the past two weeks after a substantial decline of 60% vs previous weekly trend levels.
  • This week a 3% growth was seen vs last week. This is slightly down from the 6% observed the week previous.
  • AOV growth has leveled out after slight increases the past weeks.

TAKEAWAYS

  • Focus on maintaining your active customer base to mitigate any further declines.
  • Build strategies to start engaging with those customers that dropped off over the past month to win back through convenient and safe delivery or pick-up methods.

Sales by Week with AOV

Sales by Week with AOV

CASUAL DINING CONTINUES AN UPWARD WEEK-OVER-WEEK SALES TREND

OBSERVATIONS

  • Casual Fast and Casual Dining were only two business types to see growth this last week at 1% and 13% respectively.
  • Quick serve saw a slight decline in sales at -2% vs. the past week.

THOUGHT STARTER

  • Depending on your business, what are you doing to provide users a safe and compliant experience to place and deliver/pick-up their order?

Sales by Business Type

Sales by Business Type


CASUAL FAST SEES DECLINE IN AOV AND INCREASED SALES INDICATING TRANSACTIONAL GROWTH THROUGH INCREASED CUSTOMERS AND/OR FREQUENCY OF PURCHASES

OBSERVATIONS

  • Overall AOV has flattened out due to a -6% growth decline from Casual Fast
  • Casual Dining AOV growth remains consistent at 3% week-over-week.
  • Quick Serve saw a slight increase in growth at 2% week-over-week vs. only 1% growth last week.

TAKEAWAY

  • Ensure your marketing messaging and cross-sell/upsell interactions are adjusted accordingly based on the context of what and when the user is purchasing.

AOV by Business Type

AOV by Business Type

 

DAYPART ORDER SHARE REMAINS CONSTANT WITH NEW SHIFT TOWARDS AFTERNOON AND DINNER

OBSERVATIONS

  • No observable changes from last week.
  • 24% of sales occur in Morning & Lunch day parts while 64% occur between Afternoon and Dinner.

TAKEAWAY

  • Be sure restaurants are sufficiently staffed during the afternoon and evening to meet increasing demand during those times of day.

Sales by Daypart

Sales by Daypart

TAKEAWAYS

1. We are seeing the first view on potential return of customers as sales growth outpaces AOV growth for the first time in six weeks.

  • How is your business engaging with these returning customers?
  • Are you targeting look-a-like customers to identify additional customers that may be open to returning to ordering?

2. Weekly sales have flattened out and remained consistent week-over-week while shelter in place orders remain in effect.

  • Focus on driving Active customers still purchasing and how to increase their AOV
  • Target lapsed customers who stopped purchasing in the past month and instil confidence to purchase again through convenience and safe delivery/pick-up methods.

3. Ordering dayparts remain consistent with slight consolidation of orders towards Afternoon & Evening.

  • How is your marketing messaging adjusting to support the environment the user is in and their needs to support at-home orders?

Data Source

The data from this report has been anonymized and provided by Punchh and Hathway. This real-time, Punchh loyalty, online order and POS-transactions data was gathered from QSR, Fast Casual, and Casual Dining brands across the US.

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