Punchh is partnering with Hathway to analyze the latest restaurant industry trends on a weekly basis to help our customers navigate the COVID-19 crisis and the new economic environment.
WEEKLY PULSE TREND REPORT
As a growing number of states across the US order the closure of restaurant dining rooms due to COVID-19, executives are scrambling to stem the tide of sales decline that will almost surely follow. To help these restaurant brands make informed decisions during this critical time, Hathway and Punchh have joined together to provide a weekly report analyzing the recent changes in behaviors amongst loyalty customers and predicting what will happen next. Following our initial trend report from March 21, this week’s report examines data from February 16, 2020 through April 25, 2020.
WEEKLY SALES GROWTH TRAJECTORY CONTINUES TO GROW WITH A 24% INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK, THE STRONGEST WEEK GROWTH TO DATE. WITH AOV DECLINING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS, SALES GROWTH IS DRIVEN BY INCREASE IN ORDERS FROM NEW AND EXISTING CUSTOMERS.
OBSERVATIONS
- For a second week in row, a strong wekly sales growth is observed. 25% weekly growth this week and 12% growth last week.
- Weekly sales are still down half of what they were pre-COVID so there is a lot to make up but the trajectory is promising.
- AOV declined by -3% for the first time in five weeks.
TAKEAWAYS
- Focus on maintaining your active customer base to mitigate any further declines.
- Build strategies to start engaging with those customers that dropped off over the past month to win back through convenient and safe delivery or pick-up methods.
Sales by Week with AOV
CASUAL FAST & CASUAL DINING OBSERVED THE LARGEST SALES GROWTH THIS PAST WEEK WITH 20% AND 19% RESPECTIVELY.
OBSERVATIONS
- Casual Dining saw the largest growth change moving from 5% last week to 19% sales growth this week.
- Casual Fast growth weekly sales growth remains strong moving from 14% growth last week to 20% growth this week.
- Quick Serve sales growth remained consistent with 13% week-over-week
THOUGHT STARTER
- Depending on your business, what are you doing to provide users a safe and compliant experience to place and deliver/pick-up their order?
Sales by Business Type
CASUAL DINING SAW A SLIGHT DROP IN AOV WITH AN INCREASE IN ORDER VOLUME. QUICK SERVE AND CASUAL FAST BUSINESSES GREW BY 1% EACH.
OBSERVATIONS
- Quick Serve & Casual Fast AOV growth slowed to 1% from previous 2-4% trend.
- Casual Dining observed first decline in AOV with a strong growth in sales driven by increased orders from new and existing customers.
TAKEAWAY
- Ensure your marketing messaging and cross-sell/upsell interactions are adjusted accordingly based on the context of what and when the user is purchasing.
AOV by Business Type
DAYPART ORDER SHARE REMAINS UNCHANGED THE PAST FEW WEEKS AFTER A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARDS AFTERNOON & DINNER DAYPARTS STARTING LATE MARCH.
OBSERVATIONS
- Even with growth in sales, there are no observable changes in DayPart from last week.
- The Morning daypart has decreased since the onset of COVID-19 and stayed consistently at ~8% for the last 4 weeks.
- 24% of sales occur in Morning & Lunch day parts. 64% of sales occur between Afternoon and Dinner.
RECOMMENDATION
- Be sure restaurants are sufficiently staffed during the afternoon and evening to meet increasing demand during those times of day.
Sales by Daypart
TAKEAWAYS
1. Weekly sales growth continues to gain traction with 24% last week and 12% the week before. As AOV is relatively flat, this sales growth is driven by increase of orders with new and existing customers.
- As there appears to be growth in returning customers, respectively expand your marketing efforts to help returning customers have confidence in purchasing through convenience and safe delivery/pick-up methods.
- Target look-a-like of new and existing customers to identify additional customers that may be open to returning to ordering.
2. AOV declined slightly vs a strong growth week last week. This is assumed to be driven by an increase in new customers returning to ordering with lower order volume.
- Engage returning customers with upsell and cross-sell opportunities.
- Make the purchasing experience as suggestive as possible given the users’ need of party size and preferences.
- Maintain your existing purchaser base and provide experiences to increase frequency and drive cross and upsells to drive AOV.
3. Ordering dayparts remain consistent with slight consolidation of orders towards Afternoon & Evening.
- Ensure you are timing your marketing communications to help users plan their Afternoon & Dinner ordering options. Look at earlier communications for planning and Afternoon/Dinner communications for immediate action. Don’t forget to suppress users that have already purchased that day to avoid irrelevant messaging.
Data Source
The data from this report has been anonymized and provided by Punchh and Hathway. This real-time, Punchh loyalty, online order and POS-transactions data was gathered from QSR, Fast Casual, and Casual Dining brands across the US.
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